Narendra Modi Targets AtmanirbharBharath Growth in “ V “ shape


Generally Growth Rate of the GDP is primary indicator to measure the Health of the Economy of any country along with Forex Reserves, Fiscal Deficit/Surplus and Current Account Deficit/Surplus, Tax collections and Debt To GDP in the Normal Conditions. We can be experienced the Deficit in our Budgets regularly in Fiscal and Current Accounts, Deficit is not at all always negative factor, if it is reasonable and with in the defined limits as per the yardstick laid down by the International and Domestic Standards and Practices. When there is a extraordinary abnormal events like Covid19 pandemic situation, which are beyond the human  controls, such events shall be considered distinctively as practically as possible when we apply measures to evaluate the facts and figures to represent the true and fair picture of the prevailing situation rather than utilizing the knowledge to create a fear of the uncertainties emerged in the pandemic situations to transform it as a panic among the general public. Union Government decisions pertinent to the augment of Economy and Finance prior to the pandemic and implications thereof during the pandemic periodwas prominent and  with the observations, advises from experts, policies and decisions of the Government to implement it from time to time. Though Finance is the part parcel in the Economy, Both of them shall be evaluated together or exclusively for the better understanding the data and facts.

It is imperative to assess the Size of Economy to the Size of Tax Collections, it has  correlation and growth of them from one period of time to another is vital while come to a reasonable positive conclusion in the general conditions. At present, We are in specific pandemic Lockdown and Unlock phases,  in this situation  Growth in GST Collections vis a vis GDP is pivotal to assess the performance of the Economy since it reads the growth in the Consumption, the Manufacture and Service activities including FDI, Employment, Exports and Imports, Collections in Direct Taxes etc. Changes in GST Collections, Whether increase or decrease, from one period to another can be taken in to account to correlate the increase or decrease in the rate of Consumer Consumption, Manufacturing input Consumption for their Production Output, Exports and Imports, Investments in Manufacturing and Service Sectors, Employment etc., Though all these factors may not register similar impact according to that of raise and down trends of GST when compared for different periods, But the direction of overall performance of GST Collections  to all these key considerations swings in similar directions for the  changes in two different periods. Most particularly, We shall evaluate the data with adequate care during the pandemic period since the assessment in sensitivity of uncertainty is the key factor as the period of uncertainty and it’s influence on future period is very important to understand with due care rather than to utilize the negative results during such uncertain period of the pandemic for spitting venom on the principle authoritarian in the Government, not only in our country but in other countries also across the Globe. But many preoccupied mind set intellectuals tried their level best to target PM Narendra Modi led Union Government in India though some of them tried rigorously provide the precautionary advises for AtmanirbharBharath Package to handle the uncertainties during the Lockdown period for phased manner Unlock to set right the Economic Activities for the smooth function of day to day operations of the human beings and the Industrial setups.

Some  of the preoccupied mind set Intellectuals that who raised their voice about the Economy of our Country while results of the First Quarter i.e. April to June during the Financial Year 2021-22 announced as registered 23.9% lower GDP growth rate with lower GST collections as follows when compared with previous year for the same period.

 GST Collections :

                     ( In Crores )

               2019 – 20     2020-21

April     1,13,865       32,294

May      1,00,289        62,009

June      99,939          90,917    

Total :  3,14,093      1,85,220

Difference in GST Collections lowered for Rs. 1,28,873 Crores for the 1st Quarter of the Current Financial Year 2020-21 to the Previous Financial Year 2019-20 by -41.03% when there was (-)23.9% GDP Growth rate for the same period during the effective Lockdown due to Covid19 pandemic. Narendra Modi led Union Government had announced the AthmanirbharBharathPackage in order to boost the Consumption by pumping the adequate Liquidity in to the system in different categories as per the requirements, in which allocated for 3Lack Crore for MSME directly and through NBFCs and Equity participation for around 75 Thousand Cores for safeguarding them to operate smoothly with a intention to improve it’s share in the GDP  significantly from the existing share of 30%. Apart from this, Agriculture Sector had given utmost priority by providing Credit facilities even during the first phase of the Lockdown and Union government allocated 75 Thousand Crores to procure Agricultural outputs at MSP during this period, in addition to that provided Rs 1 Lack Crore for storage infrastructure for Agricultural outputs. Direct Cash Transfer Rs. 500/- per month for 6 months to 80 Crore people of BPL Families had assisted for their Consumption needs along with Food grains, PM Swanidhi for Credit Facility to the Street Vendors up to Rs. 10,000/- wiith 7% Interest subsidy like so on, all these assistances from the Union government had intended to improve month by month economic activities in the Country through AtmanirbharBharath Package during the period of the pandemic. But, Congress party Leader Rahul Gandhi had tried to politicize the pandemic conditions as failure of the Narendra Modi led Union Government and few Left oriented intellectuals also orchestrated as chorus by showcasing the contraction in GDP Growth at (-)23.9% in Q1 of the Current Financial Year as against 5.2% Growth in the Q1 of the previous year and Lower GST Collections in the 1st Quarter of the current financial year projected as a permanent decline in country’s economy due inefficiency and incompetence of the Narendra Modi led Union Government though the similar conditions were in existence across the globe, even advanced and developed Countries weren’t exceptional from Covid19 uncertainty. On the other hand, Narendra Modi governance gave priority to provide assistance  to the poor and needed during the Lockdown and revival of commercial activities prioritised during phase wise  unlock. Keeping in view of the intensity of the Covid19 pandemic, few rating agencies, Institutions and experts had projected the contraction in  GDP would be around (-)10.50% to (-)12.50% in our country for the Current Financial Year, Which costs adversely Tax Collections, Investments and Employment opportunities.

As against to the projections and estimations by many, significant surge in the Economic activities were noticed for a slow recovery due to AtmanirbharBharath Package in 2nd Quarter of the Current Financial Year when compared with the 1st Quarter and Narendra Modi led Union Government reposed the confidence slowly among the general public to get the things on track though still the impact of the Lockdown and uncertainty of the pandemic had been in progress during the 2nd Quarter also. Further, contraction in GDP Growth had minimized to (-)7.5% though it was expected up to (-)9.5% in the Q2 of the Current Financial Year as against (-)23.9% for the Q1 results due to relentless efforts of the Union Government and RBI. Significant recovery had been registered in GST Collections When compared with Q1 results though there was a shortage in Collections in normal conditions, Manufacturing Index or Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) had improved during the 2nd Quarter, these were the key indicators of Economy Performance for present and future outlook of the remaining period of the Current Financial Year.

GST Collections in Q2 & Q3 :

    ( In Crores )

               2019 – 20     2020-21

July        1,02,083       87,422

Aug           98,202        86,649          

Sep            91,916     95,480   

Oct            95,380    1,05,155

Nov         1,03,492   1,04,963

The growth in GST Collections when compared  that in months of July, August, September, October and November 2020  was -14%, -8% , 5%, 10% and 1% respectively when compared with same period during the previous year, which shows the trajectory of recovery of our economy in ”  V ” shape. Apart from this, PMI is one of the key indicator to evaluate the Manufacturing activity and it would be at 50 points in normal conditions. Prior to Lockdown, it was between 52 to 55 points between January to March during the current calendar year. But, Post Lockdown it was declined to April: 27.4, May :30.8, June: 47.2, July: 46 respectively during the Current Financial Year and it has been improved to reach the normal conditions as in August : 52, September: 56.8, October: 58.9 and November: 56.3 respectively. Hence, there is a clear positive uptrend in GST Collections as well as PMI points from September 2020 and so on. When the Manufacturing activity ahead, simultaneously stress in Unemployment also minimized. Most particularly, migrated Labourers had faced serious problems due to Lockdown, which had been used for their political means by the Opposition Parties instead of address the problem. But Prime Minister Narendra Modi did give utmost priority to safeguard their lives from the pandemic as well as allocated specific funds and resources to transport them to their home places with food and shelters with the co-ordination of State Governments though few State Governments were not concerned as at the required level and then additional 50 thousand Crores were allocated for MGNREGA in addition to the Budgetary allocations. This is the best example for human angle as a priority being migrant labourers are key human value in our Society as well as of our Economy.

Now, Our Country has registered the highest Total Forex Reserves stand at more than US$ 575 Billions and We achieved the highest inflows $13.5 Billions in Foreign Portfolio Investments ( PFI ) among the emerging Economies struggle during Covid19 uncertainties, Foreign Direct Investments ( FDI ) inflows surge at 16% for first Six months from April to September 2020 and achieved for $39.90 Billions though there was contraction of 60% for the 1st Quarter, it was improved during the Second Quarter. This recovery has become reality due to the dedication, determination,  decisiveness and timely response in all means by the Narendra Modi led Union Government with AtmanirbharBharath Package. There are few left oriented and Rahul Gandhi favoured Intellectuals expressed their concern adversely though they knew that Economy Recovers Positively after timely reaction from the Union government, they made Propaganda intentionally to create a panic and unrest among the public and all these should evaluate, analyse and report the data in true sense rather than spill the venom on Nation’s prospects. When there is a abnormal and extraordinary situation pertinent to the pandemic conditions, everyone shall behave as a responsible citizens rather than settling political scores at individual levels and Now, everybody should speak that Why has the RBI and CRISIL reworked for the Projected GDP Contraction as (-) 9.5%  One month back, but it has been revised as (-7.5%) for Current Financial Year as against earlier projection was at (-) 12%4months ago and What were the measures taken by the Union Government and How it was possible to achieve the positive results? No doubt that Our Country is ahead to $5 Trillion Economy in next 5 Years to create the Self Reliant Bharath under the visionary dynamic Leadership of our Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

-DinakarLanka,, F.C.A.